NgoFebhuwari 24 ngesikhathi saseBeijing, uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin wamemezela ngokusemthethweni ukuthi uzokwenza “imisebenzi yezempi” eDonbas, e-Ukraine.Kamuva, uMongameli wase-Ukraine uVladimir Zelensky wamemezela ukuthi izwe lingene esimweni sempi.
Ngesikhathi sokushicilela, intengo yendawo yegolide yema ku-$ 1940, kodwa i-bitcoin yehla cishe i-9% emahoreni angu-24, manje ibikwe ku-$ 34891, ikusasa le-Nasdaq 100 lehla cishe i-3%, kanye nekusasa le-S & P 500 kanye nekusasa le-Dow Jones index. yehle ngaphezu kuka-2%.
Ngokukhula okubukhali kwezingxabano zezwe, izimakethe zezimali zomhlaba zaqala ukuphendula.Izintengo zegolide zenyuka, amasheya ase-US ahlehla, futhi i-bitcoin, ethathwa "njengegolide ledijithali", yehlulekile ukuphuma kumkhuba ozimele.
Ngokusho kwedatha yomoya, kusukela ekuqaleni kwe-2022, i-bitcoin ibeke okokugcina ekusebenzeni kwempahla enkulu yomhlaba wonke ngo-21,98%.Ngo-2021, osanda kuphela, bitcoin ibekwe kuqala ezigabeni ezinkulu zempahla ngokukhuphuka okubukhali kwe-57,8%.
Umehluko omkhulu kangaka uvusa umcabango, futhi leli phepha lizohlola udaba oluwumgogodla oluvela ezinhlangothini ezintathu zesenzakalo, isiphetho kanye nesizathu: ingabe i-bitcoin enenani lamanje lemakethe cishe eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-700 isabhekwa "njengempahla ephephile"?
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2021, ukunaka kwemakethe yemali yomhlaba kugxile esigqini sokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo le-Fed.Manje ukuqina kokungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine sekuphenduke enye idada elimnyama, okuthinta umkhuba wazo zonke izinhlobo zezimpahla zomhlaba.
Esokuqala yigolide.Selokhu kwaqubuka ingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine ngo-February 11, igolide seliphenduke isigaba sempahla esihlaba umxhwele kakhulu esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.Lapho kuvulwa imakethe yase-Asia ngoFebhuwari 21, igolide leqa ngesikhathi esifushane langena e-US $1900 ngemuva kwezinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili.Ngonyaka kuze kube manje, isivuno senkomba yegolide ye-Comex sesifinyelele ku-4.39%.
Kuze kube manje, ikhotheshini yegolide ye-COMEX ibe yinhle amasonto amathathu alandelanayo.Izikhungo eziningi zocwaningo lokutshalwa kwezimali zikholelwa ukuthi isizathu salokhu sibangelwa ikakhulukazi ukulindela ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo kanye nemiphumela yezinguquko ezisekelweni zezomnotho.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokwanda okubukhali kwakamuva kwezingozi zezwe, isici segolide "sokuzonda ubungozi" siyagqama.Ngaphansi kwalokhu okulindelekile, uGoldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2022, ukubamba kwegolide kwe-ETF kuzokwenyuka kuye kumathani angama-300 ngonyaka.Ngaleso sikhathi, uGoldman Sachs ukholelwa ukuthi intengo yegolide izoba ngu-$2150 / iounce ezinyangeni eziyi-12.
Ake sibheke i-NASDAQ.Njengenye yezinkomba ezintathu ezinkulu zesitoko sase-US, ihlanganisa namasheya amaningi obuchwepheshe ahamba phambili.Ukusebenza kwayo ngo-2022 kubi.
Ngomhla zingama-22 kuNovemba 2021, inkomba ye-NASDAQ yavalwa ngaphezu kwe-16000 okokuqala ngqa emlandweni wayo, ibeka irekhodi eliphezulu.Kusukela lapho, inkomba ye-NASDAQ yaqala ukuhlehla kakhulu.Kusukela kuvalwa ngoFebhuwari 23, inkomba ye-NASDAQ yehle ngo-2.57% kuya kumaphuzu we-13037.49, okuphansi okusha kusukela ngoMeyi ngonyaka odlule.Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lerekhodi elibekwe ngoNovemba, lehle cishe ngo-18.75%.
Ekugcineni, ake sibheke bitcoin.Kuze kube manje, ikhotheshini yakamuva ye-bitcoin iseduze nathi $37000.Kusukela irekhodi eliphezulu le-US $ 69000 labekwa ngoNovemba 10, 2021, i-bitcoin ihlehle ngaphezu kuka-45%.Ngesikhathi sokwehla okukhulu ngoJanuwari 24, 2022, i-bitcoin yashaya u-$ 32914 ephansi, yabe ivula ukuhweba eceleni.
Kusukela ngonyaka omusha, i-bitcoin ibuyisele kafushane uphawu lwe-$ 40000 ngoFebhuwari 16, kodwa ngokuqiniswa kokungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, i-bitcoin ivaliwe amasonto amathathu alandelanayo.Unyaka kuze kube manje, amanani we-bitcoin wehle ngo-21.98%.
Kusukela ekuzalweni kwayo ku-2008 enkingeni yezezimali, i-bitcoin kancane kancane ibizwa ngokuthi "igolide ledijithali" ngoba nayo inezimfanelo ezithile.Okokuqala, inani eliphelele lihlala njalo.I-Bitcoin yamukela ubuchwepheshe be-blockchain kanye ne-algorithm yokubethela ukwenza inani layo eliphelele lingaguquki lifinyelele ezigidini ezingama-21.Uma ukushoda kwegolide kuvela ku-physics, ukushoda kwe-bitcoin kuvela kwizibalo.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uma kuqhathaniswa negolide elingokwenyama, i-bitcoin kulula ukuyigcina futhi iphathe (empeleni uchungechunge lwezinombolo), futhi ibhekwa njengephakeme kunegolide kwezinye izici.Njengoba nje igolide liye laba uphawu lomcebo ovela ezinsimbi eziyigugu kusukela langena emphakathini wesintu, intengo ekhuphukayo ye-bitcoin ihambisana nokuphishekela ingcebo kwabantu, ngakho abantu abaningi bayibiza ngokuthi “igolide ledijithali”.
"Izinto zakudala eziphumelelayo, izikhathi ezinzima zegolide."Lokhu ukuqonda kwabantu baseShayina ngezimpawu zengcebo ngezigaba ezahlukene.Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2019, kuhambisane nokuqala kwempi yezohwebo yaseSino US.I-Bitcoin yaphuma emakethe yebhere futhi yakhuphuka isuka ku-$3000 yaya cishe ku-$10000.Umkhuba wemakethe ngaphansi kwalokhu kungqubuzana kwendawo uqhubeka usakaza igama le-bitcoin "igolide ledijithali".
Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni yamuva, nakuba intengo ye-bitcoin ikhuphuka ngokuguquguquka okukhulu, futhi inani layo lemakethe lidlula ngokusemthethweni i-US $ 1 trillion ngo-2021, lafinyelela ingxenye eyodwa kweshumi yenani lemakethe yegolide (izibalo zibonisa ukuthi inani lemakethe legolide elimbiwe. ngo-2021 cishe i-US $ 10 trillion), ukuhlobana phakathi kokusebenza kwentengo nokusebenza kwegolide kuye kwaba buthaka, futhi kunezimpawu ezisobala zokudonsa ihuku.
Ngokusho kwedatha yeshadi ye-coinmetrics, umkhuba we-bitcoin negolide ube nokuhlanganisa okuthile engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, futhi ukuhlotshaniswa kwafinyelela ku-0.56, kodwa ngo-2022, ukuhlobana phakathi kwentengo ye-bitcoin negolide kuye kwaba kubi.
Ngokuphambene nalokho, ukuhlobana phakathi kwe-bitcoin ne-US stock index kuya ngokuya kukhuphuka.
Ngokusho kwedatha yeshadi ye-coinmetrics, i-coefficient yokuhlobanisa phakathi kwe-bitcoin ne-S & P 500, enye yezinkomba ezintathu ezinkulu zamasheya ase-US, ifinyelele ku-0,49, eduze nenani elidlule elidlule le-0,54.Ukuphakama kwevelu, kuqina ukuhlobana phakathi bitcoin futhi S & P 500. Lokhu kuhambisana nedatha ye-Bloomberg.Ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari 2022, idatha ye-Bloomberg yabonisa ukuthi ukuhlobana phakathi kwe-cryptocurrency ne-Nasdaq kufinyelele ku-0,73.
Ngokombono wemakethe yemakethe, ukuxhumana phakathi kwe-bitcoin ne-US stocks nakho kuyanda.Ukukhuphuka nokuwa kwamasheya bitcoin kanye nobuchwepheshe izikhathi eziningana ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule, futhi kusukela ekuweni kwamasheya ase-US ngo-March 2020 kuya ekuwohlokeni kwamasheya ase-US ngoJanuwari 2022, imakethe ye-cryptocurrency ayizange iphume emakethe ezimele, kodwa ikhombisa inkambiso yokukhuphuka nokuwa ngezinye izitoko zobuchwepheshe.
Kuze kube manje ngo-2022, yiyona ngqo iqoqo elihamba phambili lamasheya obuchwepheshe "faamng" eliseduze nokwehla kwe-bitcoin.Iqoqo lezikhondlakhondla eziyisithupha zobuchwepheshe zaseMelika lehle ngo-15.63% ngonyaka kuze kube manje, likleliswe kwabaphambili ekusebenzeni kwezimpahla ezinkulu zomhlaba.
Kuhlanganiswe nentuthu yempi, ngemva kokuqala kwempi yaseRussia yase-Ukraine ntambama ye-24, izimpahla eziyingozi emhlabeni wonke zawa ndawonye, amasheya ase-US kanye ne-cryptocurrency awazange agcinwe, kuyilapho intengo yegolide namafutha yaqala ukukhuphuka, futhi imakethe yezezimali yomhlaba wonke yayibuswa “yintuthu yempi”.
Ngakho-ke, kusukela esimweni samanje semakethe, i-bitcoin ifana nempahla eyingozi kunokuthi "impahla ephephile".
I-Bitcoin ihlanganiswe ohlelweni lwezezimali olujwayelekile
Lapho i-bitcoin iklanywa nguNakamoto, ukuma kwayo kwashintsha izikhathi eziningana.Ku-2008, indoda engaqondakali ebizwa ngokuthi "i-Nakamoto cong" yanyathelisa iphepha egameni bitcoin , wethula uhlelo lokukhokha nge-electronic point-to-point.Kusukela ekuqanjweni kwegama, kungabonakala ukuthi ukuma kwayo kwasekuqaleni kwakuyimali yedijithali enomsebenzi wokukhokha.Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngo-2022, yi-El Salvador kuphela, izwe elincane laseMelika Ephakathi, eyenze ngokusemthethweni ukuhlolwa komsebenzi wayo wokukhokha.
Ngaphezu komsebenzi wokukhokha, esinye sezizathu eziyinhloko zokuthi kungani uNakamoto edala bitcoin ukuzama ukulungisa isimo samanje sokunyathelisa okungenamkhawulo wemali ohlelweni lwezimali lwanamuhla, ngakho wadala bitcoin ngenani eliphelele eliphelele, eliphinde liholele kwelinye. ukuma kwe-bitcoin njenge "anti inflation asset".
Ngaphansi komthelela wobhubhane lomhlaba wonke ngo-2020, i-Federal Reserve yakhetha ukuhlenga imakethe esimweni esiphuthumayo, iqale "i-QE engenamkhawulo" futhi ikhiphe enye i- $ 4 trillion ngonyaka.Izimali ezinkulu zaseMelika ezinenani elikhulu le-liquidity etshalwe esitokisini naku-bitcoin.Zonke izimali ezinkulu, okuhlanganisa nezinkampani zobuchwepheshe, izikhungo zezimali zebhizinisi, i-hedge funds, amabhange azimele ngisho namahhovisi emindeni, zikhethe “ukuvota ngezinyawo zazo”, Zingene emakethe yokubethela.
Umphumela walokhu ukukhuphuka okuhlanya kwentengo ye-bitcoin.NgoFebhuwari 2021, uTesla wathenga i-bitcoin ngama- $ 1.5 billion.Intengo ye-bitcoin ikhuphuke ngaphezu kwe-$ 10000 ngosuku futhi yafinyelela inani eliphakeme lika-$ 65000 ngo-2021. Kuze kube manje, i-wechat, inkampani efakwe ohlwini lwase-US, iqongelele ngaphezu kwama-bitcoins angu-100000 kanye nezikhundla ze-gray capital ezingaphezu kuka-640000 bitcoins.
Ngamanye amazwi, i-bitcoin whale, eholwa inhloko-dolobha enkulu ye-Wall Street e-United States, isibe amandla ayinhloko ahola emakethe, ngakho-ke umkhuba wemali enkulu usuphenduke umoya wemakethe yokubethela.
Ngo-Ephreli 2021, i-coinbase, i-encryption exchange enkulu kunazo zonke e-United States, yafakwa ohlwini, futhi izimali ezinkulu ziyakwazi ukufinyelela ukuhambisana.Ngo-Okthoba 18, i-SEC izogunyaza i-ProShares ukuthi iqalise i-bitcoin futures ETF.Ukuvezwa kwabatshalizimali base-US ku-bitcoin kuzophinde kwandiswe futhi amathuluzi azoba aphelele kakhulu.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-US Congress nayo yaqala ukubamba ukulalelwa kwe-cryptocurrency, futhi ucwaningo mayelana nezici zayo namasu okulawula lwaba lujula futhi lwajula, futhi bitcoin yalahlekelwa imfihlakalo yayo yasekuqaleni.
I-Bitcoin kancane kancane iye yafakwa ekhaya yaba enye impahla eyingozi esikhundleni sokuthatha indawo yegolide ohlelweni lokukhathazeka ngokuqhubekayo ngezimali ezinkulu futhi yamukelwe imakethe evamile.
Ngakho-ke, kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2021, i-Federal Reserve iye yasheshisa ijubane lokukhulisa inzalo futhi yafuna ukumisa inqubo "yokukhululwa okukhulu kwamanzi edola laseMelika".Isivuno samabhondi ase-US senyuke ngokushesha, kodwa amasheya ase-US kanye ne-bitcoin bangene emakethe yebhere lobuchwepheshe.
Ekuphetheni, isimo sokuqala sempi yaseRussia yase-Ukraine sibonisa imfanelo yamanje yempahla eyingozi ye-bitcoin.Kusukela ekushintsheni kokuma kwe-bitcoin eminyakeni yamuva, i-bitcoin ayisabonwa “njengempahla ephephile” noma “igolide ledijithali”.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-14-2022